From November 2024, Paul Faulkner will be contributing a regular column in Birmingham Business magazine - a must read publication for anyone involved in the regional business community.
The first column appeared in the November edition of the magazine which can be viewed online here - https://lnkd.in/gqfH3vQ.
Alternatively, read Paul's column below.
Ride the ‘Dragon of Change’
While it is often said that business craves stability, we continually find that change and
uncertainty are constants in our world.
That has certainly been well illustrated over the past decade. Starting with the uncertainty
created by the announcement of the Brexit referendum in 2015 and the subsequent
prolonged decoupling from Europe, we have then had a series of general elections, six
Prime Ministers, a global pandemic and the emergence of a ‘fractious’ global geopolitical
situation amongst other challenges. The latter is still evolving, and, given modern global
supply chains, has very real impacts on business as well as a terrible human cost.
As I write these words, print deadlines mean I am doing so just before a couple of scheduled
events that are generating plenty of uncertainty around their outcomes and are likely to have
a sizable impact on UK businesses and, in one case, the wider world.
First up we have the Budget at the end of October. By the time you read this we will of
course know the detail and just how accurate all of the pre-Budget coverage and ‘pitch
rolling’ has been.
I don’t think that I am going out on a limb to say that I expect it to be something of a
‘statement Budget’ given that it is the first one of the new government, as well as the first
ever to be delivered by a female Chancellor. Whatever the content, given that the first
person to hold the position is generally thought to be Eustace (He/Him) of Fauconberg in
1221 (thank you Wikipedia!) I think we can all agree that, at least, is a welcome and long
overdue occurrence.
With that said, this Budget does feel as though it has been in the news almost since the day
the election result was confirmed and it has certainly created a lot of unhelpful uncertainty for
business, providing a reason for actions and investment decisions to be delayed in many
cases. With the economy crying out for growth, and growth being a core aim of the proposed
Industrial Strategy, it is certainly to be hoped that once the detail of the Budget is in the rear-
view mirror and has been worked through, fiscal policy can take a backseat for a while.
The Chancellor’s moment in the spotlight will then be swiftly followed by the US
election on 5th November. This will undoubtedly provide some fireworks and compelling
viewing, and whatever happens one hopes above all else that there is a safe and peaceful
transition of power from President Biden to President #47.
With the debate between the Republicans and Democrats seeming so toxic and polarising,
the sense that the US may ‘zig or zag’ in terms of how it interacts with the world, depending
on who wins, is palpable. While I’m sure that will be the case on a range of important topics,
having lived and worked in the US for a number of years, personally I still subscribe to
Warren Buffet’s philosophy of ‘never betting against America’ whatever the outcome, and
expect it to be the dominant global economy and superpower for a good while to come,
whoever is sat in the Oval Office.
Still, with change and uncertainty as givens in the world, what can - and does - the stability
craving business community do?
In my experience the answer is that it rolls up its collective sleeves, puffs out its cheeks and
gets on with things. The resilience, ingenuity and ability of businesses to adapt and evolve
is as much of a constant as uncertain operating conditions. This really is something that we
should recognise and celebrate more as a country, not least as it is the taxes generated by
our economy and businesses that go back to the Treasury in order to pay for our public
services.
Early in my career a mentor told me that change was inevitable and so rather than fearing it
one should embrace it and ‘ride the dragon of change’. That idea has always stayed with
me and has certainly been helpful in managing different points of my career, not least in an
industry such as football where I worked for a decade and where change happens at an
incredible pace.
I believe that same attitude and approach is true for the business community in general. In
some ways that is inevitable, as the competitive nature of commerce means that you either
adapt to conditions or die as an organisation. And while there will be winners and losers
across the business community in the coming period, everyone will be straining every sinew
to hit targets, innovate and achieve success in their particular industry.
So, with change an inevitability and more ‘unknown unknowns’ in the period ahead an
absolute certainty, rather than fearing that uncertainty simply recognise that it is always
going to happen. Plan and prepare for contingencies, and then strap in, hold on tight and
enjoy the ride on the ‘dragon of change’!